Trade Tensions will decrease U.S Economic Growth: Economists

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The National Association for Business Economics survey reported that economists have criticized the global trade disputes of the U.S President Donald Trump and indicated it as a factor motivating decreased economic growth. 35% of respondents said Trump’s protectionist measures had hurt their companies, while 7% said the policies had improved business. 32% of respondents said that tariffs had not impacted their businesses. Two-thirds of goods-producers said the tariffs had negatively affected business. A NABE press release has indicated that the respondents reported falling sales and increased costs for materials. The survey pointed out weakening U.S economic growth over the next 12 months. The economists surveyed said they still expected economic growth in the next year, in spite of the concerning signs.

NABE President Constance Hunter said in the press release that the U.S economy appears to be slowing, and respondents expect still slower growth over the next 12 months. Many of the survey indicators in this report are at their lowest levels in several years. It is important that all respondents still expect the current economic expansion to continue over the next 12 months. One-fifth of economists said that they had hired more workers in the last 3 months. The survey also mentioned that wage and salary growth was much less widespread at respondents’ firms in the 3^rd quarter of 2019 than in the previous 4-years.

It is noteworthy that Trump has regularly touted his economic record. The results of NABE put expansion expectations significantly below what the president has sought. The administration of Donald Trump has yet to achieve a full year of its 3% growth target. The respondents to the NABE survey didn’t expect future growth to approach such levels. More than two-thirds of economists surveyed said that they expected real GDP growth between 1.1 and 2% over the next year. One-fifth predicted economic growth beyond 2%. It was considered a sizable decrease from the nearly half who predicted such growth in the July survey.